METI Outlines Plan to Replace Up to 14 Nuclear Reactors by the 2050s

The advisory body meeting of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has revealed a target to replace up to five nuclear reactors by the 2040s and a total of 11 to 14 reactors by the 2050s. This is the first time the Japanese government has presented a numerical target since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident. METI also disclosed estimates indicating that Japan could face a nuclear capacity shortfall of up to 5.5 GW in FY2040 and 16 GW in FY2050 compared to targets set in the 7th Strategic Energy Plan – which aims to cover 20% of the power generation mix with nuclear energy by FY2040.

Regarding the new targets, committee members said the quantitative outlook would improve predictability for nuclear operators, and many supported the revised draft of guidelines for nuclear power policy. After receiving public comments, the government plans to formally approve the guidelines as early as summer 2026.

In Japan, four reactors will reach 60 years of operation by FY2040, and 15 reactors will reach that point by FY2050. The revised draft guideline shows a more proactive government stance toward replacing reactors that reach 60 years of age. The leading candidates include Kansai Electric Power’s Mihama Nuclear Power Plant, where units 1 and 2 are set for decommissioning, while Kyushu Electric Power is also considering replacement with a new type of reactor known as a next-generation innovative reactor.

Article content — Units at the Takahama nuclear power station are among those to have restarted since the Fukushima disaster. Courtesy Kansai Electric.

🔍 Shulman Commentary:

Japan’s electricity demand is projected to increase from 900 TWh in FY2022 to up to around 1,100 TWh by FY2040 (METI). Nuclear power seems to be regaining momentum in Japan more than 15 years after the Fukushima accident, as it could help address the energy trilemma: energy security, affordability, and decarbonization.

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