Shulman Advisory

Prices Hit Cap in Second FY2025 NFC Auction as Non-FIT Volumes Rise

Publication date: Dec 9, 2025 

Prices Hit Cap in Second FY2025 NFC Auction as Non-FIT Volumes Rise

The Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) has released the results of the second-round of the Non-Fossil Value Trading Market (or Non-Fossil Certificate (NFC) Auction) for FY2025. Prices for Non-FIT (Feed-in-Tariff) NFCs, both certificates “without renewable energy designation”, mainly derived from nuclear power and certificates “with renewable energy designation” ones, such as large hydropower, hit the upper limit of JPY 1.30/kWh.

In the Market for Achieving Energy Supply Act Obligations, which handles Non-FIT NFCs, contracted volumes increased in both categories. The volume of the certificates without renewable energy designation rose to 591.68 GWh, a 37.4% increase from FY2025 Round 1. Meanwhile, certificates with renewable energy designation reached 623.11 GWh, marking a 73.9% increase. On the sell side, bids for the certificates without renewable energy designation fell 2.3%, whereas bids for certificates with renewable energy designation rose 85.5%. On the buy side, bids declined sharply, down 51.3% for without renewable designation and 52.3% for with renewable designation. Looking back in FY2024, all sell bids were contracted in Rounds 3 and 4, with prices hitting the upper limit. Market participants suggest that buyers may have anticipated a similar patternthis year.

Prices Hit Cap in Second FY2025 NFC Auction as Non-FIT Volumes Rise

In the Environmental Value Trading Market which trades FIT certificates, contracted volume fell 27.5% from the previous round to 15,215.98 GWh. The contracted price remained at the lower limit of JPY 0.40/kWh, with the highest contracted price at JPY 0.70/kWh. Compared with the previous round, prices continued to stick to the lower limit, while both buy-bid volumes and contracted volumes declined.

Shulman’s commentary: In the first round of FY2025 NFC auction,  Non-FIT NFCs ‘with renewable energy designation’ were priced at JPY 0.91/kWh, while Non-FIT NFCs ‘without renewable energy designation’ were priced at JPY 0.72/kWh. The second auction saw a sharp increase in contracted prices as more companies sought to secure Non-FIT NFCs at an earlier stage, placing the bid at the upper price limit.

💬 Want to dive deeper into how the NFC auctions have progressed and what the future outlook looks like? Our team is ready to support your analysis. Please reach out to us at info@shulman-advisory.com