Publication date: Dec 23, 2024
New Strategic Energy Plan Prioritizes a Balanced Energy Mix
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has presented a draft of the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, which includes a new energy mix outlook for 2040. Renewable energies account for the highest share at around 40-50%. Of this, solar generation is expected to contribute 22% to 29%, making it Japan’s largest power source by 2040. Nuclear power is set at around 20%, unchanged from the 6th Strategic Energy Plan. However, it is noteworthy that the phrase “reducing dependence on nuclear power plants as much as possible” which had been emphasized since the fourth plan formulated after the Great East Japan Earthquake, was deleted. Low-carbon thermal power is set at 30-40% and not divided by fuel type. It was determined that it would be difficult to foresee the spread of hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS).
Increased Electricity Demand and Plan Finalization
In contrast to the previous plan, which expected electricity demand to decrease by 2030, the new plan forecasts that electricity demand will increase due to the progress of DX (Digital Transformation) and GX (Green Transformation). By 2040, estimates of the amount of electricity generated range from about 1.1 to 1.2 trillion kWh, while electricity demand ranges from 900 billion kWh to 1.1 trillion kWh.
The new plan also advocates the importance of maximizing the use of renewable energy and nuclear power, which have high decarbonization effects. While positioning renewable energy as the primary power source, it clearly states that the goal is to achieve a well-balanced energy mix so as not to be overly dependent on specific power or fuel sources.
The draft will now be presented to the ruling party for final adjustments. The METI’s Basic Policy Subcommittee will meet again within the month to finalize the draft of the 7th Strategic Energy Plan. After that, the draft will go through public comment and be submitted for a Cabinet decision in February 2025.
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